Tuesday, September 23, 2025, 13:00 UTC
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Infrared satellite imagery of
Typhoon RAGASA
over the South China Sea,
23.09 12 UTC
Source: NASA Worldview
| Track and intensity guidance for Typhoon RAGASA,
23.09 06 UTC
Source: JTWC, visualization: B. Mühr
| Maximum 10 m wind gust over China,
until 25.09 00 UTC
Source: wxcharts
| Accumulated precipitation over China,
until 27.09 00 UTC
Source: wxcharts
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Tropical cyclone
Southern China
Issued: Tuesday, September 23, 2025, 13:00 UTC
Former Super-Typhoon RAGASA is expected to make landfall as a powerful typhoon in Southern China west of Hong Kong on Wednesday, September 24, 2025. Before landfall, it is expected that the intensity of the typhoon will decrease to a category 3-equivalent strength. Nevertheless, violent winds and torrential rains will impact Southern China.
23.09.2025
The West Pacific basin has been abnormally quiet for much of the 2025 typhoon season. The accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) was and is still way below average for this stage of the season. In mid-September, the first two major typhoons for the season developed over the West Pacific basin. East of Japan, Typhoon NEOGURI is no threat to any land mass during its life cycle. On September 18, 2025, a second tropical depression formed east of the Philippines. On its northwesterly trajectory, the tropical depression quickly intensified over the West Pacific warm pool. Here, sea surface temperatures of more than 30 °C fuel tropical cyclogenesis.
On September 20, 2025, the system underwent an explosive rapid intensification cycle and reached Super Typhoon status. On September 22, 2025, Super Typhoon RAGASA made landfall on Babuyan Island in the Luzon Strait. At peak intensity, Super Typhoon RAGASA had sustained winds of up to 270 kph and a minimum central pressure of 910 hPa. After traversing the Luzon Strait, Typhoon RAGASA is currently located over the South China Sea. At the moment, Typhoon RAGASA has the equivalent strength of a category 4 hurricane with sustained winds of 220 kph and a central pressure of 931 hPa.
On its northwesterly trajectory, the typhoon is currently approaching the coast of Southern China. Forecast guidance is expecting the typhoon to make landfall between Hainan Island and Hong Kong on Wednesday, September 24, 2025. Further weakening of the cyclone is forecast. Upon landfall, the intensity of the typhoon is expected to decrease around a category 3 equivalent strength. Nevertheless, a violent storm is forecast to impact Southern China. Violent winds with gusts of more than 150 kph are likely. Torrential rains with accumulations of more than 350 mm are expected. Additionally, a major storm surge may impact parts of Southern China in the path of the typhoon.
Towards the weekend, the remnants of Typhoon RAGASA are forecast to dissipate over Northern Vietnam. Additional heavy rains in the region must be expected. Due to the high urbanization of the Southern Chinese Coast, significant damage may occur during the landfall of Typhoon RAGASA. A landfall close to Macau and Hong Kong would exacerbate the expected damages.
Tuesday, September 23, 2025, 13:00 UTC
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