Tuesday, April 15, 2025, 10:00 UTC
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500 hPa geopotential and sea surface pressure
over the Europe,
16.04 12 UTC
Source: wetterzentrale
| 850 hPa streamlines and wind speed over Europe,
17.04 06 UTC
Source: wetterzentrale
| Accumulated precipitation over Italy
until 20.04 06 UTC
Source: wetterzentrale
| Snow depths over the Alps,
18.04 06 UTC
Source: wxcharts
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Heavy precipitation
Southern Alps
Issued: Tuesday, April 15, 2025, 10:00 UTC
A strong trough over Western Europe is forecasted to bring abundant precipitation to Northern Italy and the Southern Alps. In the Aosta Valley, the heaviest precipitation is forecasted. Until the Easter weekend, accumulations of more than 300 mm are possible. At elevations above 2000 m, abundant fresh snow accumulations totaling more than 150 cm must be expected.
15.04.2025
Since late winter, the general synoptic weather pattern over Europe has been dominated by strong ridges. This led to a significant precipitation deficit in early to mid-spring in most parts of Europe with the largest deviations found over Central Europe. In the past few days, a large trough over the British Isles has gained influence over the weather pattern across Europe. The large ridge has shifted eastwards. By Wednesday, April 16, 2025, it is expected that the trough will elongate southwards. As a result, a strong southerly flow will develop ahead of the trough. With this southerly flow, warm and moist air masses from the Mediterranean will be advected northwards.
Along the Southern Alps, these air masses are lifted by orography. Subsequentially, heavy precipitation is forecasted to impact Northern Italy. Due to the slow motion of the upper-atmospheric trough over the British Isles, prolonged periods of heavy precipitation must be expected from Wednesday, April 16, to Friday, April 18, 2025. Widespread precipitation totals of 50 - 100 mm in Northern Italy must be expected. Along the Southern Alps, the highest precipitation totals are forecasted in the Aosta Valley. Here, precipitation totals of more than 250 mm are likely. With the potential of a second trough bringing another round of heavy precipitation over the Easter weekend, precipitation totals may reach as high as 400 mm until Easter Sunday, April 20, 2025.
At elevations above 2000 m, abundant fresh snow accumulations must be expected. Along southwards-facing flanks, fresh snow accumulations of more than 150 cm are possible. The avalanche danger in these areas will likely significantly increase. At lower elevations, the heavy rains may cause mudslides as well as river flooding.
Tuesday, April 15, 2025, 10:00 UTC
KG
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