Radar-indicated 48 h-precipitation totals over Germany, 01.06 21 UTC Source: Wegefrüh	Accumulated precipitation over Germany, until 03.06 18 UTC Source: Wetter3	River level forecast for the Danube River at Neuburg until 06.06 00 UTC Source: HND Bayern	River level forecast for the Rhine River at Worms until 03.06 21 UTC Source: HVZ Baden-Württemberg

Heavy rains, river flooding
Southern Germany

Issued: Saturday, June 01, 2024, 21:00 UTC

Heavy rains in Southern Germany are expected to continue until Monday morning, June 03, 2024. After widespread precipitation totals of more than 150 mm, the area from the Swabian Jura over the Alpine Foothills to Munich must expect another 50 mm of rain. Along the Danube as well as their southern feeder rivers, extreme river flooding must be expected.

01.06.2024

Throughout today, June 01, 2024, heavy continuous precipitation was observed over Southern Germany. Since Thursday evening, May 30, 2024, many measuring sites in Southern Germany have received more than 150 mm of rain. In the past 24 h, the area between the Swabian Jura and the Northern Alps received widespread precipitation totals of 80 - 100 mm. Throughout the night to June 02, 2024, the continuous rain is expected to ease.

Throughout Sunday, June 03, 2024, widespread convective activity is expected to impact Southern Germany, as the low-pressure system over Germany advects unstable air masses into Germany. Due to weak winds and repeated convective activity over the same areas, the risk of large rain accumulations is given. South of the Main River, the highest convective activity is expected. Especially along the Swabian Jura and south of the Danube River, the highest precipitation totals are forecasted. Here, widespread precipitation totals of 50 mm, and local precipitation totals of up to 100 mm cannot be excluded.

Due to the extreme precipitation already observed and likely to occur, severe river flooding along the Swabian Jura and rivers feeding into the Danube River is currently occurring. At some measuring gauges, 100-year flood marks were and are currently surpassed. As the most rain fell in the catchment of the Danube River, the most severe river flooding must be expected along the Danube River. Downstream of Ulm, the highest river levels of the Danube River will only be reached on Monday, June 03, 2024. At most measuring gauges, the river levels are expected to likely stay below the extreme flood marks from 1999. Further downstream, the highest water levels will only be reached by mid-next week.

North of the Swabian Jura, many minor rivers are also running at 20-year flooding levels. In the Neckar River, a 5-year flood must be expected, with the potential of a 10-year flood. In the Rhine, downstream of the mouth of the Neckar River, the potential for a 10-year flood is given. At Worms, 20-year flooding marks may be surpassed. Further downstream in the Rhine River, the severity of the river flooding will decrease. At Koblenz, the Rhine River may rise above the 6 m mark, but the highest water levels here will be only reached by mid-next week.

Radar-indicated 24 h-precipitation totals over Germany, 31.05 21 UTC Source: Wegefrüh	Accumulated precipitation over Germany, until 03.06 06 UTC Source: wetterzentrale	River level forecast for the Schussen River at Durlesbach until 01.06 06 UTC Source: HVZ Baden-Württemberg	River level forecast for the Danube River at Donauwörth until 02.06 12 UTC Source: HND Bayern

Heavy rains, river flooding
Germany

Issued: Friday, May 31, 2024, 21:00 UTC

Severe river flooding is expected to occur throughout the weekend in Southern Germany. In the past 24 h, rain accumulations of more than 100 mm were observed. Until Monday morning, further episodes of heavy precipitation are expected to bring another 100 mm of rain.

31.05.2024

A classic Vb low-pressure system is currently bringing heavy rains to Southern Germany. In the past 24 h, already more than 100 mm of rain was observed in the Allgäu region. In the coming 48 h, further episodes of heavy rains are expected to impact the region from the Swabian Jura over the Allgäu region and the Alpine Foothills in Bavaria. Further accumulations over 100 mm are possible. Especially along northwestwards facing flanks of the Swabian Jura and the Alpine Foothills, precipitation totals of more than 150 mm cannot be excluded.

As a result of the extreme precipitation, many minor rivers in the region stretching from the Swabian Jura to the Allgäuer Alps are forecasted to reach extreme flooding stages later in the night, with the highest water levels not reached by the latter half of tomorrow, June 01, 2024. Many rivers in the region are expected to reach surpass 50-year flooding stages, even surpassing 100-year flooding at some measuring gauges cannot be excluded. Northwest of the Swabian Jura, the rivers draining into the Neckar River may also reach 50-year flooding stages.

With precipitation easing on Sunday, June 02, 2024, the river flooding is expected to shift into the major rivers draining Southern Germany. In the upper part of the Danube River, river levels higher than during the exceptional floods of 1999 and 2013 may occur. In the Neckar River, river levels may reach 20-year flooding stages. In the Upper Rhine, water levels higher than a 10-year flood are likely. At Maxau, the Rhine is expected to reach up to 870 cm. Whether a major river flooding may occur downstream in the Rhine and Danube Rivers is too early certainly forecast currently.

500 hPa geopotential and mean sea-surface pressure over Europe, 31.05 12 UTC Source: wetterzentrale	Accumulated precipitation over Germany, until 03.06 06 UTC Source: wxcharts	Snow depth over Central Europe, 01.06 06 UTC Source: wetterzentrale	River level forecast for the Neckar River at Heidelberg until 09.06 00 UTC Source: HVZ Baden-Württemberg

Heavy rains, river flooding
Germany

Issued: Thursday, May 30, 2024, 18:00 UTC

A classic Vb surface low is expected to bring abundant precipitation to parts of Germany. Especially south of the Danube River, 48 h-precipitation totals of more than 100 mm must be expected. Locally, 48 h-accumulations of more than 150 mm cannot be excluded. River flooding is forecasted to occur along the Danube, Neckar, Main, and Rhine Rivers.

30.05.2024

Contrary to the western half of Germany, the precipitation totals in the southern and eastern half of Germany have not been as high in May. Many locations here still are running at a deficit compared to the average monthly precipitation. In the coming days, a trough from the North Sea will move over Central Europe. Beneath, the trough, a low-pressure system is expected to form over the Gulf of Genoa today on May 30, 2024. Over the weekend, the low-pressure system is expected to follow the classic Vb-low trajectory, moving from the Po plain over the Alps into Germany and Poland.

The combination of the slow-moving surface low and the upper-level trough will create a favorable environment for heavy continuous precipitation due to abundant mid-level lifting. Precipitation is expected to set in on Friday, May 31, 2024. From Southern Germany, the precipitation complex is expected to shift northeastwards into Thuringia and Saxony throughout the day. On Saturday, June 01, 2024, the precipitation is expected to shift westwards, reaching as far westwards as the Sauerland mountains. Further south, in the area around the Danube River, continuous heavy precipitation is forecasted. On Sunday, June 02, 2024, the precipitation is expected to move southwards concentrating on the Northern Alps and the Alpine Foothills in Bavaria. Continuous precipitation is expected to linger on along the Northern Alps until Monday 03, 2024.

In the area east of the Black Forest stretching to the Bavarian Forest, extending from the Northern Bavaria to the Northern Alps, widespread precipitation totals of 100 mm must be expected. Locally, higher precipitation totals of more than 150 mm cannot be excluded. At elevations over 2000 m in the Alps, significant fresh snow accumulations over the weekend are forecasted, and locally fresh snow accumulations of more than 50 cm are likely. In neighboring regions, precipitation totals of up to 50 mm are forecasted. In Thuringia and Saxony, embedded thunderstorms may lead to precipitation totals of up to 100 mm.

Due to the wet weather pattern before the now forecasted rains, widespread river flooding must be expected. Depending on the exact focal point of the event, severe river flooding may occur. Currently, the minor rivers along the Swabian Jura show a high potential for river flooding in the coming days. River levels may reach a 5-year flood. In hilly terrain, the threat of mudslides is given. Along the major waterways in Germany, the potential for a significant river flood is given. Most likely, the Main, Neckar, and Danube Rivers will run at flooding stages early next week. Along the Rhine River, the highest river levels may only occur by mid-next week.