Wednesday, April 03, 2024, 17:00 UTC
|
|
|
|
500 Geopotential and mean sea-surface pressure
over Europe,
07.04 00 UTC
Source: wetterzentrale
| 850 hPa temperaturen and geopotential over Europe,
07.04 00 UTC
Source: wetterzentrale
| EFI and SOT for the
2 m maximum temperature over Central Europe,
06.04
Source: ECMWF
| 2 m maximum temperature over Central Europe,
06.04 18 UTC
Source: wetterzentrale
|
Unseasonably warmth
Central Europe
Issued: Wednesday, April 03, 2024, 17:00 UTC
A strong ridge is expected to bring unusual warmth to Central Europe. With a potent southerly flow, unseasonably warm air masses are expected to be advected into Central Europe from Northern Africa. The potential is given for record-breaking temperatures in the first decade of April.
03.04.2024
A strong ridge is expected to develop in the coming days over Europe, advecting unseasonably warm air masses into Central Europe. 850 hPa temperatures are expected to rise to values of up to 20 °C. At the surface, day-time maximum temperatures are forecasted to reach values of up to 27 °C. The record for the first April decade is 27.7 °C in Germany.
The ensemble forecast from the ECMWF shows for the weekend of April 06, and April 07, 2024, Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) values of nearly 1, highlighting that temperatures are expected to rise near the climatological maximum for early April. The Shift of Tails (SOT) Index shows values not below 1 for most of Central Europe, indicating that the ECMWF ensemble contains only a few new records in the climatology. Further uncertainty arises from another potentially potent outbreak of Saharan dust. With a strong southerly flow in 500 hPa, the synoptic conditions are favorable for another Saharan dust event. A strong dust event can easily reduce the daytime maximum temperature by more than 5 K.
On Saturday, April 06, 2024, the highest temperatures are expected around Mannheim, with the highest temperatures are expected around 27 °C. On Sunday, April 07, 2024, the area with the highest temperatures is forecasted to shift eastwards with a trough approaching the western half of Germany. With strong southerly Föhn winds, the temperatures in the southeastern part of Bavaria and the Lusatia are once again forecasted to reach up to 27 °C. In favorable conditions, record-breaking temperatures are possible in case only minor amounts of Saharan dust affect Germany.
Wednesday, April 03, 2024, 17:00 UTC
KG
|
