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Wednesday, 20 Aug 2021, 21:00 UTC





Forecasted trajectory of Hurricane
GRACE, 20.08., 18 UTC
Source: NHC
Tropical storm force wind probability
and arrival time, 20.08., 18 UTC
Data Source: NHC
Sea surface temperature, 18.08.
Data Source: NHC
Satellite image (infrared) of GRACE, 20.08., 18 UTC
Data Source: Worldview


Hurricane Grace
Mexico

Issued: Friday, 20 Aug 2021, 21:00 UTC

After Hurricane Grace passed the peninsula Yucaton in Mexico and the northern part of Belize, they will make a second landfall south of Tampico at Friday night. Hurricane winds over 120 km/h and heavy precipitation are expected.

20.-22.08.2021


After Hurricane Grace brought intense rainfall to the Yucatan Peninsula and northern Belize, as well as wind gusts around 160 km/h and floodings, it weakened briefly as it made landfall, interrupting the energy supply. Thus, it was downgraded to a tropical cyclone yesterday (Thursday). However, a renewed intensification began over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. This was due to very high water temperatures of 30°C and above and low to moderate wind shear values between 10 and 15 m/s. Furthermore, a very high moisture content exists. As a result, convection intensified and Grace again grew into a well-structured category 1 hurricane. The storm will likely continue to strengthen until landfall, making a second landfall Friday night as a Category 2 hurricane in Mexico. Then, a moderate storm surge, with winds up to 160 km/h, and heavy rains must be expected along the east coast. Accumulated precipitation amounts up to 300 mm are expected until Sunday. Therefore the greatest danger comes from intense rainfall, which will cause flooding and landslides, especially in mountainous and highly populated areas.


Wednesday, 18 Aug 2021, 11:00 UTC





Forecasted trajectory of Hurricane
GRACE, 18.08., 06 UTC
Source: NHC
Tropical storm force wind probability
and arrival time, 18.08., 06 UTC
Data Source: NHC
120h precipitation, 23.08., 00 UTC
Data Source: Windy
Satellite image (infrared) of GRACE, 18.08., 06 UTC
Data Source: NHC


Tropical Storm
Mexico, Guatemala, Belize

Issued: Wednesday, 18 Aug 2021, 11:00 UTC

Three active tropical system in the Northern Atlantic. GRACE will make landfall in Quinatana Roo (MX) and re-enter the southern Gulf of Mexico. Another Hurricance-strength landfall is possible. Total precipitation of up to 300mm.

18.-22.08.2021


While the 2021 Northern Atlantic Hurricane Season picks up the pace, there are currently three active tropical systems beeing monitored. Ex - Tropical Storm FRED has already moved from the Gulf of Mexico to the north and is dissipating over the continental masses of Northern America. Roughly 2500 km eastwards Tropical Depression Eight has increased to Tropical Storm HENRI on August 16 and is likely to reach Hurricane strength on Friday, August 20. However, there will be no landfall and the impacts will be limited to coastal areas of Easern USA and Canada as well as the Bermuda Islands.

More than 10° of latitude closer to the Equator, Tropical Storm GRACE is passing the Carribean Sea. It is forecasted to move westwards under further intensification, causing the system to reach Hurricane strength before making landfall 150 km south of Cancun, Mexico, on Thursday, August 19. Interaction with land will decrease the system's strength, but re-entering the warm seas of the Gulf of Mexico on Friday, August 20, may lead to re-intensification towards and above Hurricane strength. Rainfall of 100 to 200mm is expected over Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, parts of the Yucatan Peninsula and the state of Vera Cruz through Friday night, with isolated amounts as high as 300mm. These could lead to flash floods and flooding in cities, with mudslides possible in Jamaica.


Issued: Aug 20, 2021, 21:00 UTC
NB

Issued: Aug 18, 2021, 11:00 UTC
FS

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