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Thursday, November 15th, 2018, 13:40 CET





Accumulated precipitation until NOV 17th 00 UTC
Source: Wetterzentrale
3h precipitation for NOV 16th 00 UTC
Source: Wetterzentrale
Sea surface Temperatur
Source: Wetterzentrale
Stream lines and wind velocity
Source: Wetterzentrale

Cyclone GAYA - Warning
November 14th - 17th, 2018

Issued on: Thursday, November 15th, 2018, 13:40 CET

Cyclone GAYA hits southeast coast of Indian subcontinent

Trajectory and intensity

Cyclone GAJA is still located on the southwestern edge of the Gulf of Bengal off the east coast of India, approximately 260 km east of Chennai (Tamilnadu). The storm moves westwards at a speed of approx. 18 km/h and intensifies due to still 28°C warm sea water. On recent satellite images the typical eye and more organized convection / precipitation bands can now be seen. Due to the strong high pressure area in the north, GAJA will maintain its trajectory to the west. GAYA will make landfall on November, 15th at approx. 21 UTC with wind speeds of up to 72 kt or approx. 130 km/h.

Threats and damages

In the states of Andhra Pradesh, Kerala, Karnataka and especially Tamil Nadu, wind speeds of 100 km/h and gusts of over 100 km/h must be expected. Along GAYAs trajectory rainfall of over 150 mm and intensities of up to 50 mm/3h must also be considered. This warning also applies in particular to the east coast of the state of Tamil Nadu. Furthermore the high intensity of precipitation leads to a risk of flooding and landslides.

Further development

After landfall, the cyclone moves further in a westerly direction and heads out into the Arabian Sea on the west coast of Kerala. While the wind speeds over land are decreasing rapidly, the strong precipitation is felt much further inland. Over the Arabian Sea, the cyclone could intensify again, while it continues to move in a westerly direction. Once GAJA reaches the mainland, it will initially weaken due to friction. There is also the possibility that it may even dissipate completely.


Wednesday, November 14th, 2018, 20:20 CET




Accumulated precipitation until NOV 17th 00 UTC
Source: Wetterzentrale
3h precipitation for NOV 15th 12 UTC
Source: Wetterzentrale
Satellite image (infrared) from NOV 14th 18 UTC
Source: Dundee Satellite Recieving Station

Cyclone GAYA - Warning
November 14th - 17th, 2018

Issued on: Wednesday, November 14th, 2018, 20:20 CET

Cyclone GAYA hits southeast coast of Indian subcontinent

Trajectory and intensity

GAJA is currently located on the southwestern edge of the Bay of Bengal, approximately 430 km east of Chennai (Tamilnadu). The storm moves westwards at a speed of approx. 13 km/h and intensifies over the still 28°C warm sea water. Landfall is expected on November 15th at approx. 21 UTC with wind speeds of 80 to 100 km/h.

Threats and damage

In the states of Andhra Pradesh, Kerala, Karnataka and especially Tamil Nadu, wind speeds of 100 km/h and gusts of over 100 km/h must be expected. Along GAYAs trajectory, rainfall of over 150 mm and intensities of up to 50 mm/3h must also be considered. This warning applies in particular to the east coast of the state of Tamil Nadu. Due to the high intensity of precipitation, there is a risk of flooding and landslides.

Further development

After landfall, the cyclone moves further in a westerly direction and heads out into the Arabian Sea on the west coast of Kerala. While the wind speeds over land are declining rapidly, the strong precipitation can be felt much further inland. Over the Arabian Sea, the cyclone could intensify again, while it continues to move in a westerly direction.

German version


Installed on: November 14th, 2018, 20:20 CET
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