DORIANs predicted trajectory, 06.09., 12 UTC Image Credit: NHC / NOAA	Tropical-storm-force-winds probability and their most likely time of arrival 06.09., 12 UTC, Image Credit: NHC / NOAA	Satellite images, 06.09., 12:01 UTC Image Credit: NOAA GOES Image Viewer	Rain radar, 05.09., 11:58 UTC Image Credit: NWS / NOAA

Hurricane DORIAN
Carribean, Eastern USA, Eastern Canada, Eastern Canada

Issued: Friday, 06 September 2019, 15:00 CET

Category 1 hurricane DORIAN aprroaches the east coast of North Carolina. Mean winds up to 150 kph, extensive rainfall and storm surge possible in North Carolina and Virginia. DORIAN will decrease to a post-tropical storm in the night to Sunday.
27 Aug - 09 Sep 2019

The eye of hurricane DORIAN is currently (12 UTC) located only about 15 km west of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. The storm moves with a displacement speed of 22 kph in a northeasterly direction and grinds over the Outer Banks. DORIAN's winds still reach velocities of up to 150 kph, in gusts up to 185 kph. Its core pressure is 956 hPa. The hurricane-like winds still extend within a radius of 75 km around the centre. The tropical-storm-force winds occur even in within 350 km distance to DORIANS eye.

It is expected that DORIAN's intensity will hardly change in the next 24 hours. Only at Sunday, 08 September 00 UTC, the system will have weakened to a post-tropical storm. In Nova Scotia and Newfoundland, wind speeds of up to 120 kph still must be expected.

Today, storm surges of up to 2 m have to be expected on the east coast of North Carolina and Virginia. In the northeast of North Carolina and in the southeast of Virginia, up to 200 mm precipitation may still fall, locally even more. In the southeast of New England as well as in Nova Scotia up to 125 mm are possible, in Newfoundland up to 50 mm.

DORIANs predicted trajectory, 05.09., 12 UTC Image Credit: NHC / NOAA	Tropical-storm-force-winds probability and their most likely time of arrival 05.09., 12 UTC Image Credit: NHC / NOAA	Satellite image (visbile), 05.09., 12:36 UTC Image Credit: NOAA GOES Image Viewer	Rain radar, 06.09., 11:48 UTC Image Credit: NWS / NOAA

Predicted accumulated precipitation,05.09. 12 UTC Image Credit: NHC / NOAA	Flash flooding risk, 05.09. 12 UTC until 08.09. 12 UTC Image Credit: NHC / NOAA	Rain radar, 05.09., 12:48 UTC Image Credit: NWS / NOAA	Supercell risk, 05.09., 12 UTC Image Credit: SPC / NOAA

Hurricane DORIAN
Carribean, Eastern USA, Eastern Canada, Eastern Canada

Issued: Thursday, 05 September 2019, 16:00 CET

Hurricane DORIAN maintaned category 3 status and is moving along the east coast of Florida, Georgia and Carolina. Still life threatening situation due to hurricane-like winds, rain up to 400 mm and storm surge up to 2.5 m.
27 Aug - 09 Sep 2019

With mean winds of 185 kph and gusts of up to 225 kph, hurricane DORIAN still belongs to category 3. Its core pressure also remains largely unchanged at 959 hPa. The system is currently located about 90 km southeast of Charleston, South Carolina, and moves north-northeast at 13 kph. As a result, the eye of the storm is slowly approaching the mainland. DORIAN is expected to make landfall on Friday at 10 UTC in Havelock, North Carolina. Already about 6 hours later the eye of the storm will be over open sea again and will then move away from US mainland in a northeastern direction.

One reason for the remarkable durability of the hurricane is the fact that the system still benefits from very warm water masses. Even on the coast of North Carolina the sea surface temperature is still up to 30°C. Only when the hurricane crosses the Gulf Stream in a northerly direction and encounters significantly colder water masses (SST ≤ 25°C) it will weaken significantly. According to current forecasts, DORIAN will maintain its hurricane status until 08 September. With the predicted trajectory this would imply landfall on Nova Scotia and possibly even Newfoundland as a hurricane.

Hurricane DORIAN has enormous potential of danger in various aspects.
In the coastal areas of Florida, Georgia, South- and North Carolina and in the southeast of Virginia there is danger from hurricane-like winds. In the same states there is also danger from heavy rain and thunderstorms. As can be seen from the satellite image, the remarkable cloud coverage from DORIAN extends far inland. Thundestorms with hurricane-like gusts and flash-flooding amounts of precipitation are not only possible in coastal areas but also far inland. In the area of the outer Eyewall (currently above South and North Carolina) super cells with isolated tornadoes may form. There is also a significant risk of storm surges of up to 2.5 m in South- and North Carolina and in the southwest of Virginia. In the bays and river estuaries around Pamlico Sound (North Carolina) the storm surge can be even higher.

Tropical-storm-force-winds probability and their most likely time of arrival 03.09., 15 UTC, Image Credit: NHC / NOAA	Satellite images, 03.09., 14 UTC Image Credit: NOAA GOES Image Viewer	Predicted accumulated precipitation, 08.09., 12 UTC Image Credit: NHC / NOAA	Flash flooding risk, 03.09. 12 UTC until 06.09. 12 UTC Image Credit: NHC / NOAA

Hurricane DORIAN
Carribean, Eastern USA, Eastern Canada

Issued: Tuesday, 03 September 2019, 18:45 CET

After more than 12 hours of almost stationarity hurricane DORIAN finally started moving to the north-northwest in the last hours. Due to an eye replacement cycle DORIANs intensity decreased to category 3. Still live-threatening situation.
27 Aug - 09 Sep 2019

After the eye has wobbled around over the island of Grand Bahama for more than 12 hours, DORIAN starts moving north-northwest now. The eye is currently located about 85 km north of Freeport, Grand Bahama Island. The core pressure of the hurricane is 955 hPa. The mean winds still reach 175 kph with gusts up to 215 kph.

While DORIAN will move parallel to the east coast of Florida and Georgia at a distance of about 140 km, it will approach the mainland in South Carolina and touch the coast in North Carolina. Until then, the intensity of the hurricane will hardly change. The system will weaken further when it encounters significantly colder water masses north of North Carolina. According to the latest forecasts, DORIAN may maintain its hurricane status on its way north beyond 45 degrees latitude and even make landfall on Newfoundland as a hurricane.

Even if the system does not make landfall in Florida, there is a danger of hurricane-like winds, especially near the extensive rainbands. There is also a risk of rainfall of up to 200 mm and resulting flooding and landslides. On the entire east coast, especially in Carolina, there is the danger of a storm surge of up to 2 m.

Tropical storm (≥ 8 bft) probability, 02.09., 06 UTC Image Credit: NHC / NOAA	Satellite images, 02.09., 14 UTC Image Credit: NOAA GOES Image Viewer	Predicted accumulated precipitation, 07.09., 12 UTC Image Credit: NHC / NOAA	Flash flooding risk, 02.09. 12 UTC until 05.09. 12 UTC Image Credit: NHC / NOAA

Hurricane DORIAN
Carribean, Eastern USA, Eastern Canada

Issued: Monday, 02 September 2019, 16:45 CET

Still category 5 Hurricane DORIAN almost becomes stationary over the Island of Grand Bahama. The storm is expected to shift northwards within the next 24 hours. Even without a land fall on the US mainland, hurricane-like winds and precipitation of up to 300 mm must be expected.
27 Aug - 09 Sep 2019

The eye of Category 5 Hurricane DORIAN is currently located over the Island of Grand Bahama. Maximum mean winds are 270 kph with gusts up to 325 kph. The core pressure of the hurricane is 916 hPa.

DORIAN became almost stationary with an movement of only 2 kph in western direction. This leads to enormous amounts of rain and hurricane-like winds on the Island of Grand Bahama and Great Abaco. Within 72 hours, rainfall of up to 750 mm may fall. This is more than the average annual value in Karlsruhe, Germany (728 mm).

Tomorrow, Tuesday evening, the system is expected to be deflected northwards from a trough over the mainland of the USA. According to current forecasts, the hurricane will travel along the east coast of Florida, Georgia and South Carolina with a distance of approx. 90 km. As can be seen on the satellite image, some rainbands extend up to several hundred kilometers from the center, especially in the west southwest of the eye. Flash flooding and landslides, just as hurricane-like winds may not only occur on the coastal areas but also in the inland of Florida.

In North Carolina the storm will come very close to the coast or even make landfall. Especially the Outer Banks and the bordering estuaries of the Neuse River or the Pamlico River but also in the west of the Albemarle Sound there can be enormous storm surges of up to 1.75 m due to the east winds prevailing north of the hurricane.

DORIANs trajectory, 01.09., 12 UTC Image Credit: NHC / NOAA	Tropical storm (≥ 8 bft) probability, 01.09., 12 UTC Image Credit: NHC / NOAA	Satellite images, 01.09., 18 UTC Image Credit: NHC / NOAA	Predicted accumulated precipitation, 07.09., 00 UTC Image Credit: NHC / NOAA

Hurricane DORIAN
Carribean, Eastern USA, Eastern Canada

Issued: Sunday, 01 September 2019, 22:45 CET

Catastrophic Hurricane DORIAN has developed into a Category 5 hurricane and made landfall on Great Abaco Island at 18 UTC, 01 September. Maximum sustained winds were 300 kph at that time which is the strongest Atlantic hurricane landfall on record.
27 Aug - 09 Sep 2019

Due to the high sea surface temperature in the Caribbean Sea and minimal vertical wind shear in the atmosphere, DORIAN was intesified into a catastrophic Category 5 hurricane. The maximum mean winds are 300 kph with gusts of up to 360 kph. The eye of the storm is currently over the Caribbean island of Great Abaco. The minimum pressure in the eye is 911 hPa. The system moves with approx. 11 kph in western direction.

The eye of the storm is expected to pass over Grand Bahama on September 2, 06 UTC. According to the latest forecasts, the storm will approach the east coast of Florida (Palm Beach) up to 130 km before being deflected to the north. From then on the trajectory will proceed parallel to the east coast of Florida, Gerogia and South Carolina. Landfall in South or North Carolina cannot be excluded. By then, DORIAN will have downgraded to a Category 2 or Category 1 hurricane.

Wind speeds of up to 300 kph must be expected in the northern Caribbean islands. Severe storm damage is expected. In addition, rainfall of up to 650 mm is expected.
On the east coast of the USA, wind speeds of up to 250 kph and precipitation rates of up to 300 mm must be expected.

DORIANs trajectory, 31.08., 02 UTC Image Credit: NHC / NOAA	Tropical storm (≥ 8 bft) probability, 30.08., 20 UTC Image Credit: NHC / NOAA	Satellite images, 31.08., 02 UTC Image Credit: NHC / NOAA	Predicted accumulated precipitation, 06.09., 20 UTC Image Credit: NHC / NOAA

Hurricane DORIAN
Carribean, Eastern USA, Eastern Canada

Issued: Saturday, 31 August 2019, 11:00 CET

DORIAN has intensified into a Category 4 hurricane and poses a significant threat to Florida and the nortwestern Bahamas. Total precipitation values of 400 mm possible, locally even more.
27 Aug - 09 Sep 2019

Hurricane DORIAN has strengthened into a Category 4 hurricane in the last few hours and will remain in this category until Tuesday. Yesterday evening at 20:30 DORIAN was about 925 km east of West Palm Beach/Florida. The hurricane moves northwest at a speed of 10 kph (17 km/h). Today DORIAN passes north of the southeastern and central Bahamas. The east coast of Florida is expected to be reached on Monday evening. DORIAN still belongs to category 4 (gusts of wind up to 230 km/h).

In addition to the risk of severe storm damage, flooding and landslides also pose a risk. In the northern Bahamas and the south of Florida, rainfall of up to 400 mm and precipitation intensities of up to 150 mm/3h must be expected.

DORIANs trajectory, 30.08., 15 UTC Image Credit: NHC / NOAA	Tropical storm (≥ 8 bft) probability, 30.08., 12 UTC Image Credit: NHC / NOAA	Satellite images, 30.08., 15 UTC Image Credit: NHC / NOAA	Predicted accumulated precipitation, 06.09., 12 UTC Image Credit: NHC / NOAA

Hurricane DORIAN
Carribean, Eastern USA, Eastern Canada

Issued: Friday, 30 August 2019, 19:45 CET

DORIAN has intensified into a Category 2 hurricane and poses a significant threat to Florida and the nortwestern Bahamas. Intensification up to Category 4 expected. Total precipitation values of 400 mm possible, locally even more.
27 Aug - 09 Sep 2019

Hurricane DORIAN is currently located approximately 350 km north-northwest of the Turks- and Caicos Islands. The mean wind speeds are 175 kph, in gusts up to 205 kph. DORIAN's core pressure is currently 972 hPa. The tropical system moves northwest with a displacement speed of about 18 kph.

According to the latest predictions, DORIAN's trajectory leads over the Abaco Islands and Grand Bahama. On September 03, landfall as upper Category 3 or lower Category 4 Hurricane is expected in Palm Beach, Florida.

In addition to the risk of severe storm damage, flooding and landslides also pose a risk. In the northern Bahamas and the south of Florida, rainfall of up to 400 mm and precipitation intensities of up to 150 mm/3h must be expected.

DORIANs trajectory, 29.08., 23 UTC Image Credit: NHC / NOAA	Tropical storm (≥ 8 bft) probability, 28.08., 20 UTC Image Credit: NHC / NOAA	Satellite images, 28.08., 23 UTC Image Credit: NHC / NOAA	Predicted accumulated precipitation, 05.09., 00 UTC Image Credit: Wetterzentrale

Hurricane DORIAN
Carribean, Eastern USA, Eastern Canada

Issued: Thursday, 29 August 2019, 11:00 CET

Hurricane DORIAN moves with forward speed of 13 kph towards ther northwest. Mean winds of 80 kph, in gusts up to 130 kph are expected. Total precipitation of 200 mm possible in eastern Puerto Rico.
27 Aug - 09 Sep 2019

Hurricane DORIAN has been located about 95 km northwest of San Juan, Puerto Rico since yesterday evening at 8 pm. It moves with a forward speed of 13 kph (20 km/h) towards the northwest. The northwestern direction is expected to remain until Friday. DORIAN is crossing the Atlantic far east of the southeastern and central Bahamas. The maximum average speed is 80 kph (130 km/h), much higher in gusts. Gusts of wind can occur up to a distance of 30 km from the centre. In the next few days, the hurricane will pick up speed again, so that it will develop into a stronger hurricane.

Due to heavy precipitation, storm surges may continue to occur in the central and northwestern Bahamas as well as on the east coast of Florida during the week and at weekends. Where exactly storm surges occur remains to be seen. In Puerto Rico, wind speeds of 100 kph, gusts of up to 130 kph and rainfall of up to 200 mm/24h must be calculated. There is a risk of storm damage, flooding and landslides.

DORIANs trajectory, 28.08., 15 UTC Image Credit: NHC / NOAA	Tropical storm (≥ 8 bft) probability, 28.08., 15 UTC Image Credit: NHC / NOAA	Satellite images (visible), 28.08., 12 UTC Image Credit: NHC / NOAA	Predicted accumulated precipitation, 05.09., 00 UTC Image Credit: Wetterzentrale

Tropical Storm DORIAN
Carribean, Eastern USA, Eastern Canada

Issued: Wednesday, 28 August 2019, 18:00 CET

Tropical storm DORIAN is likely so reach hurricane-strength within the next 6 hours. Mean winds of 100 kph in Puerto Rico, in gusts up to 130 kph. Total precipitation of 200 mm possible in eastern Puerto Rico.
27 Aug - 09 Sep 2019

Tropical storm DORIAN is currently located 100 km south of Isla de Vieques and is moving northwest with a displacement speed of 20 kph. Its trajectory spans over the island state of Puerto Rico and then continues in a northwesterly direction towards the east coast of the American mainland.

It is likely that the system will reach hurricane strength within the next few hours. On 29 August at 00 UTC, mean winds of 120 kph and gusts of up to 150 kph are expected. The storm will continue to intensify due to the high sea surface temperature in the Caribbean. On 01 September wind speeds of up to 185 kph and gusts of up to 225 kph are expected, equivalent to hurricane category 3.

In Puerto Rico, wind speeds of 100 kph, gusts of up to 130 kph and rainfall of up to 200 mm/24h must be calculated. There is a risk of storm damage, flooding and landslides.

DORIANs trajectory, 27.08., 06 UTC Image Credit: NHC / NOAA	Tropical storm (≥ 8 bft) probability, 27.08., 12 UTC Image Credit: NHC / NOAA	Predicted mean wind Puerto Rico, 28.08., 21 UTC Image Credit: NWS	Satellite images (visible), 26.08., 18 UTC Image Credit: NHC / NOAA

Tropical Storm DORIAN
Carribean, Eastern USA, Eastern Canada

Issued: Tuesday, 27 August 2019, 12:15 CET

Tropical storm DORIAN is the third tropical system of the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Tropical storm conditions are to be expected in the Lesser Antilles on Tuesday and in Puerto Rico on Wednesday. Rainfall up to 150mm possible.
27 Aug - 09 Sep 2019

Tropical storm DORIAN developed on August 24 in an area of strong convection and is currently located above the island of St. Lucia. It moves with a displacement speed of 20 kph in a west-northwest direction.

The current wind speeds are 85 kph, the core pressure approx. 1005 hPa. Tomorrow , Wednesday, from 12 UTC on the storm will move about 120 km south of Puerto Rico. Wind speeds of 110 kph and gusts of up to 140 kph are expected on the southwest coast.

In the Lesser Antilles and in Puerto Rico up to 1500 mm precipitation are expected. Orographic precipitation can also lead to higher amounts locally. There is a risk of flooding and landslides.